Another look at the efficiency of markets

Journal article

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Publication Details

Subtitle: the case of the tennis betting exchanges
Author list: Lobão J
Publisher: Fundacao Getulio Varagas (FGV) / Fundação Getulio Vargas
Publication year: 2015
Journal: RAE (0034-7590)
Journal acronym: RAE
Volume number: 55
Issue number: 4
Start page: 418
End page: 431
Number of pages: 14
ISSN: 0034-7590
Languages: English-Great Britain (EN-GB), Portuguese-Brazil (PT-BR)


In this article, we investigate the efficiency of the top tennis betting market worldwide using an original database from the Betfair betting exchange. Usually, the results show that the prices have made up a good forecast on the outcome of the matches. Nevertheless, there are evidences that the punters react poorly to the information (which is consistent with the conservatism and anchoring biases) and that they assign a high gain probability to any players who happens to be dominating the match (consistent with the representativeness bias). Several lucrative betting strategies were found, which puts in check the efficiency of the reviewed betting market.


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Last updated on 2019-13-08 at 00:15